Do #GDP Numbers spook #Sensex?

India is going to witness next general election in few months and things are warming up now with WhatsApp and other social media groups active with political discussions. Recently, in an intense discussion with one of my close acquaintance, a statement was made that Stock markets have rejected the GDP growth numbers reported by the current government and had tanked after the numbers were reported. This of course was followed by diatribe (in WhatsApp messaging though) on the current regime. Laced with the non-indexed assertion on prevailing fuel prices. Referring back to the stock markets statement, this was an important statement because the GDP numbers were pretty good. At 8.2% growth, the numbers indicated a sustained revival of the economy with post demonetisation adjustment.

Image result for sensex

Never shy of such opportunities to explore and validate such assertions with data, I decided to do some quick review of the performance of Sensex on the next day to the announcement of GDP numbers.  A very simple exercise based on the announcement date, time and GDP number fetched from the following sources:

  1. GDP Data – https://in.investing.com/economic-calendar/indian-gdp-quarterly-434
  2. Sensex Historical Data from good old Yahoo (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EBSESN/history/)

Lets look at some of the analysis that came out:

As one can clearly see there is nothing in this data that indicates there is any correlation. In fact the inbuilt CORREL function for Google Sheets gives the correlation as just as 3.41%.

This is a whoppingly low number for correlation against the claims that we hear or the opinions people build.

Now lets look at some of the charts that I created out of this data.

Percentage (gain and Drop) vs. Sensex Date(1)

Lets take another look with a parallel comparison of the GDP gain/loss numbers and Sensex gain/loss numbers.

 

GDP %age (Gain or Drop) and Sensex %age (Gain or Drop)(1)

 

 

If we take a look at data on some specific dates, it gives a different view altogether –

  1. On May 31, 2010 – We had the highest drop of 2.19% while the GDP growth was reported at a handsome 8.6%
  2. From Aug 30, 2011 to Nov 30, 2012 – Markets repeatedly rejected the GDP numbers and closed with a negative bias
  3. On Feb 28, 2011 – This is the day when Sensex gained most in this data set i.e. by 2.58%. Please note that GDP numbers were full 70 basis point lower at 8.2%  against 8.9% that was reported on Nov 30, 2010.

So apart from individual opinions and perhaps biases against certain individuals running the current regime, there is nothing suggesting that there is any reason to complain if the markets tanks (even in absolute numbers) the next day to the GDP numbers announcement.

#AsianGames – The Indian Story

Asian Games just concluded in Indonesia on Sunday Sep 2, 2018. Held every four years, the games have been a very competitive event where major countries like China, Japan, India and many more participate with two fold objective –

  • Continue to encourage the local sportsmen in the region
  • Identify and encourage talent in sports that are not part of the Olympics but are important in the local region of Asia

Image result for indian contingent in Asian Games

Asian games is unique as it does not see participation from many countries that have modern and advanced infrastructure as compared to the Asian countries. At the same time, it gives a glimpse into the effective cross-region growth in talent and a desire to do more in the world of sports.

It also plays a good source of income for the host country as there is good coverage of the events across a large population sitting in a relatively close timezone. For companies that are focused on Asian markets, this is the event where they pump their marketing dollars (oops Asian currencies I mean).

From last few years, the interest in Sports events in India has really picked up. With multiple new competitions in terms of PL started with IPL, KPL, ITPL etc, the general awareness about sports is tremendously increasing. And with government support through campaigns like #HumFitToIndiaFit – there is more and more interest among people for the sporting events.

With this background, I put together some simple insights in Tableau Public for the historical performance of India in Asian Games. With a legacy starting from 1952, data collection was not a challenge. However, I had some learning curve with Tableau but found it quite inquisitive and interesting to use. Though I found that publishing to the Tableau public library is quite a painful exercise with even small data sets failing to publish. The last running one has been going on for 18 minutes.

Anyway, I have raised a case with Tableau.

Here are some of the insights that I have built. Not adding a lot of commentary along. Just the visuals do a lot of talking. Two types of visuals are here –

  1. Historical Data View of India’s performance in terms of medals count – From 1952 to 2018
  2. Game – wise performance in terms of medals counts and overall ranking – From 2002 to 2018

Historical Data View of India’s performance in terms of medals count – From 1952 to 2018

India

Game – wise performance in terms of medals counts and overall ranking – From 2002 to 2018

Sport-wise Performance over the years