Fears of #AI Part 2 – Accidental Intelligence

Just as we were recovering from the spat between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, as discussed in last week’s post on Fears of AI, new events in the world are leading to more fears of perils due to Artificial Intelligence.

Fear of AI

Facebook stopped an experiment where it had created two AI Bots to negotiate with each other. The initial idea was for the bots to negotiate with each other, based on bartering. Thus ultimately hitting the common ground for both and close the deal. Instead, this happened –

(Original Transcript of negotiation between the bots)

Bob: i can i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

Bob: you i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

 

Alice: balls have a ball to me to me to me to me to me to me to me

Bob: i i can i i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have a ball to me to me to me to me to me to me to me

Bob: i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

Bob: you i i i i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have 0 to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

Bob: you i i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

What is odd in the discussion above is the language that is being used by the two bots to negotiate. Clearly, it’s not English but something scripted in English. What is clear is that the bots have developed a language only they can understand. They are interacting and responding the same way. This is the classic GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out) situation. However, Facebook quickly shut the experiment. The whole world has gone berserk with this announcement. Facebook has embraced the greatest fears of AI. Some go to the extent to say this is what has happened in public domain. What has happened in private, no one knows?

There is more noise now that scientists may not know all the solutions, and to be more specific all the problems. There are doomsday scenarios being written by multiple people, but here is a good list that tells all –

  1. THERE ARE NO ETHICS, INDUSTRY STANDARDS OR TESTING RULES
  2. RELATIONS BETWEEN MAN AND MACHINE IS CHANGING
  3. GENETIC DIVERSITY WILL BE WIPED OUT
  4. AI IS GOAL-ORIENTED REGARDLESS TO A FAULT
  5. WE WILL HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THE MACHINES
  6. VALUE OF LABOR AND SKILLS WILL FALL
  7. CRIMINAL POTENTIAL FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS BIGGER THAN YOU THINK
  8. REALITY IS DIFFERENT THAN HOW THE MEDIA REPRESENTS AI

  9. WE ARE HANDING OVER THE KEYS

  10. IT WILL LEAD HUMAN RACE CLOSE TO THE DEAD END

  11. AI CREATORS WILL NEVER KNOW ALL THE SOLUTIONS

  12. LAWS AND FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS WILL LOSE THEIR IMPACT

  13. OUR EDUCATION SYSTEM NEEDS TO BETTER PREPARE THE NEXT GENERATION

  14. THERE’S NO CURE FOR IGNORANCE

  15. AI IS NOT A PROBLEM, BUT HUMAN HUBRIS IS

More details here – The Clever.

Here is the video of the week –

July #AI Digest – #Gains, #Clothing, #Apollo and #AndrewNg

Things move at a fast pace and fast pace requires fast steps. Fast steps require more energy and the more you conserve is more you have – unless you have boosters to provide the extra energy. The system in equilibrium has the unique ability to stay in that state for a long time or at least till there is any disruption leading to entropic state and consequently moves to another state of equilibrium.

This is how the physical states work everywhere. This is how growth happens. This is how Momentum Moments are built.

The current world is undergoing a similar entropic state with multiple disruptions coming. Consequently, a new equilibrium state will come with its own tenure till something else disrupts it for good.

A recent report by PwC has predicted that Global GDP will grow by up to $16 Trillion through AI with productivity gains and consumption patterns shift. In numbers that is –

$16,000,000,000,000,000

And here is how PwC claims it.

PwC Analysis

Highlights from above chart:

  1. Labour productivity improvements that are assisting the work force to be more productive through the adoption of AI tools are going to give 55% of overall gains.
  2. Product innovation increases and gains traction with faster throughput for products and services.
  3. Consequently, there would be increased consumption and also AI would help in reducing the amount of consumption side wastage. Thereby, giving 58% of GDP gains by 2030.

In addition, SalesForce predicts that there would 800,000 new jobs and $1.1 Trillion in revenue growth by 2021 through AI.

On the other side, data Mining of 100 Million Instagram Photos revealed Global Clothing patterns. What is also means –

  • Now you can find out what clothing trends are emerging
  • That you can introduce new styles by adopting the fashion trends from anywhere in the world
  • The old order of what fits right and what fits not is quickly blurring and shadow lines are disappearing
  • Your data once published is easy commodity for anybody to use
  • Your lives so private become horribly social without your knowing
  • You may be inspiring somebody who may have no means to extend gratitude

Check out more about the study here.

clothing-1

Our friends with Oriental Lineage have a lot to share in the last few days.

The father of Deep Learning, Andrew Ng,  is making significant strides after his stint got over at Baidu. Perhaps the corporate culture was suffocating the entrepreneur in him. He has recently announced, yet another initiative for Deep Learning, this time named DeepLearning.ai. Below is the link, the scientist does have an appeal to some marketing too. Check out the capital letters in the name below.

DeepLearniNG.ai

And lastly, Andre Ng’s former employer Baidu has launched Apollo – what it is calling the Android of Self Driven Cars. Its good to hear such open systems based announcements from companies that operate in geographies where Google, Facebook, Amazon and many more companies – known for bringing openness to the forefront – are not allowed to operate. So, good luck to them and their strides. And of course, they are not doing it alone, but in partnership with Microsoft – another organisation that took years to learn about the openness of systems.

Learn more here.

Our salute to Andrew Ng for relentlessly pushing the limits of AI. Here is a famous video from him. Do watch it!

Enjoy reading… Happy rest of the week!

The Millennial Swimmer’s Body

Yami Gautam is a beautiful actress. She is fair, has sharp features and a lovely face. She has done some good cinema too with movies like Vicky Donor, Badlapur, Kaabil etc. She is also the face of Fair & Lovely Beauty Cream campaign.

Many girls see her advertisement for Fair & Lovely and buy the cream to be like Yami.

Similarly, IITs are holy grail for Engineering in India. Every year hundreds and thousands of aspirants appear in the examination to become successful. A select few hundreds make to the top institutes.

Both the above are examples of Swimmer’ Body Illusion as discovered by Nasser Taleb. Advertising of beauty products is done with people who are already good looking. Take example of Yami. She is made to look lesser pretty for the advertisement and with application of beauty product she looks to her normal self again. People, esp young girls, watching the advertisement believe that they can look like her and buy the product.

IITs, on the other hand, suffer acute shortage of good faculty at the institutes. This means that there will be plenty of courses that would be taught by mediocre or not that great professors. But still, students graduating from IITs are assumed to be the best Engineers in the country. This is because the selection through the tough and rigorous entrance examination ensures that only the best engineering minds make it to the institute. Consequently, the general engineer graduating from IIT is better engineer than others.

DD-SC-85-03041
Susan Rapp, the daughter of Army Colonel Edward G. Rapp, competes in a swimming event at the 1984 Summer Olympics.

Many a times people look at others and start believing that they are better or equal to the ‘other’ and can beat them in what they are good that. In high octane, high competition societies like India, this is very visible. Reason- because there is so much to compare.

When children – marks are compared, when teenage – latest gadgetry in hand is compared, when adults – accumulation of wealth and assets is compared.

Consequently, there is a lot of herd movement to things. The mass makes things competitive and things go into scarcity very soon.

During the 1970s, people wanted to become an Engineer and take a government job. Why? Because there were a lot of Government enterprises that were being opened and everyone wanted a safe future.

During the late 90s and early 2000s, people wanted to get into Information Technology as invariably it was the path to the US.

Since 2015, we see a lot of startups coming up. Mushrooming and growing. Trying to change the world.

What happened in 1970s? We have engineering companies with not so great engineering talent as people soon realized that they had different skills.

What happened in 1990s? We had many engineers who may have done something else (and may be more meaningful) got into IT and are straddled in their paths not knowing where to go?

What is happening today? We have a lot of people building startups because others are doing it not knowing whether they have appetite for startups or not. Soon, we would have more debris at the bottom of the ocean.

Startups

The larger startups that are going to win and thrive are the ones that are attracting talent with strong reach out.Consequently, they are building an atmosphere of competitiveness internally. People push each other to grow and grow the company along – good strategy for any company on a high velocity path. Retaining that talent is the key challenge now!

It is crucial that one realizes their own limitations and then work towards the appropriate Swimmer’s Body Dilemma. Millennials need to understand this more to know as their lives are already on the swim lane to make the fastest lap.

TaaS and The 90 million Jobs Question

Most of the times simplification of things leads to such radical changes leading to far reaching impact. And typically technology has big role to play in this simplification. transportationInvention of tractors, the modern yarn, convenient information searching platforms, simplified shopping through websites and mobiles, watching TV with streaming technology, talking bots, digital payments,  etc. are all examples of simplification of an earlier complex process. But what happens when a simplified technology replaces an existing (and successful) complex technology.

It requires skills, commitment and patience.

Recently, Tony Seba, the famous Stanford university economist riding on the now very famous Seba Technology disruption model, has studied and shared his insights for the impact of Transportation as a Service (TaaS) and Electric Vehicles (EV) on the auto industry.

Seba Framework_v18

So what is TaaS?

Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS), also known as Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), is a shift away from traditional vehicle owning and operating consumer habit to provide an alternative form of transport availability with on-demand services. The on-demand services include the basic like buying food to entertainment system and many more. This encompasses ride-hailing companies like Uber, Ola and Lyft providing the private transportation and bike-sharing programs like Divvy, CoGo etc and now commercial sharing options like Shuttl . When further extrapolated with the advent of electric vehicles and research being done on self-driving vehicles in Google Waymo, Apple Car, this provides a strong technology based platform for seamless, comfortable transportation experience.

  1. Transportation as a Service (TaaS) is the new normal that will hit the US in the next 7-10 years and soon after to rest of the world. There could be exceptions here too.
  2. TaaS will provide 95% of passenger miles within the next 10 years
  3. Consequently, transportation and travel costs will go down significantly
  4. The Technology disruption will grow along as Exponential S-Curve.
  5. High vehicle utilization would lead to lesser demand of new vehicles in the markets

Additionally, his key use case was the Tesloop where in the  Tesla lifetime warranty is put to test. Tesloop is a CA local startup that provides commute to people in a Tesla across CA. Tesla Lifetime Warranty ensures that the only upkeep cost that this company has to bear is the wear and tear from tires.

So how did Tesla come up with the infinite mile warranty?

Model S from Tesla had only 20 moving parts while a traditional Internal Combustion Engine (also known as ICE and is used by most cars in the Petrol and Diesel world today) have more than 10,000 moving parts. More the number of moving parts, more is the Electric Vehiclewear and tear and higher is the upkeep cost. The high price we pay for service of vehicles every 6-9 months is due to this high number of moving parts in the current ICE engines. A mere simplified design along with a clean energy source has led to a whole new set of dimensions of the auto industry. Lot more can be found here.

Impact of just this case study of Tesloop and Infinite Mile warranty:

  1. Low maintenance cost for the vehicles, Consequently, lower Total Cost of Ownership.
  2. Lesser to no consumption of oil so lower oil prices. May oil based economies will be impacted. So a certain shift in axis in the world economic powers.
  3. More vehicles in TaaS would mean lesser number of cars on the road. So, lesser auto insurance cost as there would be lesser accidents with lower density of vehicles. The insurance matrix would change.
  4. More cash in hand with people so improved consumer spending
  5. And what is not reported by Tony Seba – the 90 million jobs questions

The Indian companies do not appear to be geared up for this yet. If you go through the annual reports for Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors, there is hardly any mention of the electric vehicles. Perhaps, it is not in a stage yet that it can be reported.

But the bigger problem appears from the famous campaign of ‘Make in India‘ initiated by the current regime of PM Narendra Modi in India.

The ‘Make in India‘ campaign for Automotive Sector has the following aspirations:

  • Automotive Industry to be “prime mover” of the Manufacturing Sector and “Make Make_In_Indiain India” initiative
  • Exports of vehicles to increase by 5 times and of components of 7.5 times
  • Add 65 million jobs on top of current 25 million commitment for the sector

When combined with Tony Seba’s research, this initiative would need a major overhaul very soon. Following are some of the impacts that are visible:

  1. Large automotive manufacturers need to start planning for appropriate interventions for electric vehicles – new technology, new assembly lines and new skills for workers
  2. Large automotive manufacturers would need to settle with lesser domestic demand and lesser exports
  3. Auto components sector will undergo a significant consolidation and shrink as ICE’s will be replaced with electric engines. Lesser complexity as lesser number of parts are required so lesser number of OEMs.
  4. Auto insurance will undergo significant overhaul. Lesser premium, pressure on margins and shrunk workforce are immediate impacts.
  5. Roadside garages will no longer be there.
  6. And of course, the 90 million additional jobs that are being planned to be added would require new skills and re-training.

Unfamiliar and unknown impact to Skill India campaign:

The astounding impact of this is surely going to benefit the Skill India sector where the current training organisations will have a ready pool of candidates to train. The question truly remains whether Skill India or other training organisations have this kind of capacity to support such a quick switch in skills. As per National Skill Development Council reports, the current capacity of their training partners for Automotive Skill Development Council is 6.5 million.

Due to several reasons these are operating at the rate of 67% capacity. So, the current number of trained and skilled workers is 4.3 million. 

ASDC Capacity

A simple math shows that it would require 20 years to skill the current commitments. A disruptive change in technology as discussed above would lead to additional number of years. Clearly, much more needs to be done. Its a huge opportunity for budding entrepreneurs.

Another big question is whether the youth is ready to brace this kind of change? No one would know answer to this till the actually impact is visible.

It is still surprising that this shrinking world has global impact of one observation and research concluded somewhere at a time when people were sleeping.

Whether the ‘Make in India’ campaign can lead to this transformation is still an open question? But these 90 million jobs are going to be impacted in some way or the other is beyond doubt! And that the current capacity is not ready to embrace this change, opens a new area for budding entrepreneurs. Surely, interesting times ahead.

Weekly #AI Digest: Fun Facts

Lets start with some fun facts in AI

  • Most the Personal Assistants and AI products are Females. Check ‘Siri‘, ‘Cortana‘ , ‘Cognea‘ to name a few. IBM Watson is the big outlier in this. But he recently got married to Cognea.

doll-1267255_960_720

  • It is predicted that by 2018, more than 3 million workers will be supervised by a ‘Robo Boss’.
  • A whooping 85% of customer interactions will not have human reps handling the requests
  • People will leave their current jobs and become Data Science Instructors
  • Policeman giving you tickets for over speeding may be a robot or a simple machine installed in one hidden corner of the road… you may not even notice.
  • Your McDonald’s burger may have no human serving you end to end
  • Most of the news, sports and markets, that you would read would be created by Natural Language Generators

ML LANDSCAPE BANNER(2)

  • -Spider-ManSpider-Man Bot shall lead you to the closest store where you can buy the comic and enjoy reading it.
  • There are plenty on-field Robots and AI Driven machines in the field and there are plenty of startups funded to control these robots.
  • More jobs? It was said that with ATMs the number of tellers would reduce leading to job cuts. Instead, banks opened more branches and more people got hired. Bots would lead to new jobs – bot controllers, AI friends to name a few.

Besides, your privacy could be at risk. Recently, Google’s DeepMind was found to have ‘legally inappropriate access‘ to a lot of private patient data from leading hospitals in UK.

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And here is the video of the week:

Weekly #AI Digest: Voices, Wardrobes and Bickering in Homes, Influence Map

The week gone by saw launch of Amazon’s Echo Show. With this, Amazon has upped the game of voice-activated speakers market. Learn more here.

Amazon is making a killing in this market with over 70% market share as reported by

eMarketer Echo
Voice Enabled Speaker Market Share

eMarketer. The whole market is slated to grow by 28% this year. It is also expected that Google Home would make further inroads in coming years while Amazon shall continue to keep lead for some more time. Would be interesting to watch if any new entrant or an incumbent spoils their party or something completely revolutionary comes and changes the game yet again.

With consumers in the age bracket of 25-34 years, this surely is going to make a very interesting market in days to watch. Amazon introduced Echo Dot last year to make this a mainstream product. This strategy seems to be working well so far.

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eMarketer Age Split
Voice Enabled Speaker User Split

It is expected that this year more than 60.5 million Americans are going to use the Siri, Cortana or similar voice assistants at least once.

The inflection point for this technology is fast approaching as the cost of production and implementation is going down. With the costs reducing, the prices shall also come down and this technology shall become mainstream soon.

 

 

 

With Echo Show, Amazon has just extended its lead over Google Home.

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‘Mirror, Mirror… On the wall…’

Remember these old classic words. Voice enabled assistants may bring this to the real world. Now,  Alexa would also get into your wardrobe and help you in judging your outfits.

Learn more here.

EchoLook3-582x437

 

And lastly, be careful while you have fight with your better half next. Data Engineers and Scientists are working on building an algorithm that would predict when couples start fighting. While so far they have reached to the point of analyzing and rightly identifying when the bickering is happening, the goal state is to predict it.

Patterns of couple’s language and physiological signs – heart rate, skin conductance, moisture etc – are being analysed to identify which way a conversation is going. The goal state is become relationship counselors.  Learn more here.

CouplefightingiStockphoto489978372-1492457510095

With more and more technology entering our homes, it is important to seek more love and lesser fights.

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Lastly, check out the current VentureBeat World of AI influences from around the world. The map says it all.

Network-Map-Whole

Happy week to you!

 

Weekly #AI Digest: Cars, Heart & Movies

In a recent paper, published in the journal PLOS One, the researchers note that about half of all heart attacks and strokes occur in people who haven’t been flagged as “at risk.”

Medical Practitioners are planning to adopt AI to solve this problem. A recent study has demonstrated that with Machine Learning, algorithms can help to identify the potential patients with more precision than human doctors.

AI Predicts Heart Attacks and Strokes More Accurately Than Standard Doctor’s Method

 

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Just as human diagnostics are drifting to AI, so are vehicle diagnostics.

Sound recognition company, Otosense, is partnering with automobile manufacturers to explore use cases to assess vehicle health and problems based on sound it is making.

Learn more here.

Also,  Ford Fusion ENERGI becomes the first car to come with Alexa installed in it.

Read more here.

And David Hasselhoff features in ‘Its No Game’… With all dialogues written by AI algorithm that calls itself Benjamin.