July #AI Digest – #Gains, #Clothing, #Apollo and #AndrewNg

Things move at a fast pace and fast pace requires fast steps. Fast steps require more energy and the more you conserve is more you have – unless you have boosters to provide the extra energy. The system in equilibrium has the unique ability to stay in that state for a long time or at least till there is any disruption leading to entropic state and consequently moves to another state of equilibrium.

This is how the physical states work everywhere. This is how growth happens. This is how Momentum Moments are built.

The current world is undergoing a similar entropic state with multiple disruptions coming. Consequently, a new equilibrium state will come with its own tenure till something else disrupts it for good.

A recent report by PwC has predicted that Global GDP will grow by up to $16 Trillion through AI with productivity gains and consumption patterns shift. In numbers that is –

$16,000,000,000,000,000

And here is how PwC claims it.

PwC Analysis

Highlights from above chart:

  1. Labour productivity improvements that are assisting the work force to be more productive through the adoption of AI tools are going to give 55% of overall gains.
  2. Product innovation increases and gains traction with faster throughput for products and services.
  3. Consequently, there would be increased consumption and also AI would help in reducing the amount of consumption side wastage. Thereby, giving 58% of GDP gains by 2030.

In addition, SalesForce predicts that there would 800,000 new jobs and $1.1 Trillion in revenue growth by 2021 through AI.

On the other side, data Mining of 100 Million Instagram Photos revealed Global Clothing patterns. What is also means –

  • Now you can find out what clothing trends are emerging
  • That you can introduce new styles by adopting the fashion trends from anywhere in the world
  • The old order of what fits right and what fits not is quickly blurring and shadow lines are disappearing
  • Your data once published is easy commodity for anybody to use
  • Your lives so private become horribly social without your knowing
  • You may be inspiring somebody who may have no means to extend gratitude

Check out more about the study here.

clothing-1

Our friends with Oriental Lineage have a lot to share in the last few days.

The father of Deep Learning, Andrew Ng,  is making significant strides after his stint got over at Baidu. Perhaps the corporate culture was suffocating the entrepreneur in him. He has recently announced, yet another initiative for Deep Learning, this time named DeepLearning.ai. Below is the link, the scientist does have an appeal to some marketing too. Check out the capital letters in the name below.

DeepLearniNG.ai

And lastly, Andre Ng’s former employer Baidu has launched Apollo – what it is calling the Android of Self Driven Cars. Its good to hear such open systems based announcements from companies that operate in geographies where Google, Facebook, Amazon and many more companies – known for bringing openness to the forefront – are not allowed to operate. So, good luck to them and their strides. And of course, they are not doing it alone, but in partnership with Microsoft – another organisation that took years to learn about the openness of systems.

Learn more here.

Our salute to Andrew Ng for relentlessly pushing the limits of AI. Here is a famous video from him. Do watch it!

Enjoy reading… Happy rest of the week!

#Mobile #Phones do have Bearing on Road Fatalities

It is often discussed and ‘guessed’ that whether the mobile phones have any impact on a person’s ability to drive safely. The Government and Road Safety Interest groups strongly support the view while the regular drivers, who are habitual of multi-tasking in this world, say well they dont agree with this.

businesschemistry.jpg

Inspired by these conflicting opinions, I did a quick correlation test for Mobile Phone sales per country and the number of road fatalities as reported by WHO.

With a magnitude of 98.76%, mobile phone sales have a direct correlation with number of road fatalities. This correlation stands true with data of over 25 countries with China and India topping the list of mobile buyers and fatalities both.

Check it out –

No of fatalities and Mobile Phone

Sources of Data :
Road Fatalities – Wikipedia
Number of Mobile Phones Sold per country – Wikipedia

Clearly a candidate for Causation study.

Drive safely!

Weekly #AI Digest: Human Performance & Car Eyes

In 2016, a study was done to check with the experts in the trade of AI to find out what did they think about the evolving AI taking over the human performance. In simpler words, when will the AI driven machines becoming better performers than human beings. The results of the study are below:

ai-takeover

Image Source: The Technology Review

Some noteworthy things here.

  1. AI driven machines will be better at the game Go by 2026. Remember the graph above is from 2016 and has an approximate scale of 10 year interval on time line.
  2. Most of the periods of machines surpassing humans are with a median range of 40 to 45 years. A typical worker works for 35-40 years, so much for job security.
  3. Full automation is 125 years ahead… Really, can we think that far? Even if we can, whats the veracity of this? Did we know 125 years back that we would have see a boom of internet and smartphones 100 years back?

Going back to the first point of AI driven machines beating humans in ‘Go’ game by 2026, the ground reality remains humans are humans.  DeepMind’s AlphaGo successfully won the Go game over the world champion in 2017 itself.

Find out more here.

AlphaGo Beats Ke Jie

So much for the forecasts of the experts. Things are changing more rapidly than one could imagine. Is it good or bad? Only time will tell.

Even wondered how a self-driving cars see the world around them when they are out on the street? The next two videos will give you a glimpse in the Eyes of the Self Driving Cars:

Google’s Self Driving Car

Uber’s Self Driving Car

 

Hope you enjoyed this edition. Check out for more next week.

TaaS and The 90 million Jobs Question

Most of the times simplification of things leads to such radical changes leading to far reaching impact. And typically technology has big role to play in this simplification. transportationInvention of tractors, the modern yarn, convenient information searching platforms, simplified shopping through websites and mobiles, watching TV with streaming technology, talking bots, digital payments,  etc. are all examples of simplification of an earlier complex process. But what happens when a simplified technology replaces an existing (and successful) complex technology.

It requires skills, commitment and patience.

Recently, Tony Seba, the famous Stanford university economist riding on the now very famous Seba Technology disruption model, has studied and shared his insights for the impact of Transportation as a Service (TaaS) and Electric Vehicles (EV) on the auto industry.

Seba Framework_v18

So what is TaaS?

Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS), also known as Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), is a shift away from traditional vehicle owning and operating consumer habit to provide an alternative form of transport availability with on-demand services. The on-demand services include the basic like buying food to entertainment system and many more. This encompasses ride-hailing companies like Uber, Ola and Lyft providing the private transportation and bike-sharing programs like Divvy, CoGo etc and now commercial sharing options like Shuttl . When further extrapolated with the advent of electric vehicles and research being done on self-driving vehicles in Google Waymo, Apple Car, this provides a strong technology based platform for seamless, comfortable transportation experience.

  1. Transportation as a Service (TaaS) is the new normal that will hit the US in the next 7-10 years and soon after to rest of the world. There could be exceptions here too.
  2. TaaS will provide 95% of passenger miles within the next 10 years
  3. Consequently, transportation and travel costs will go down significantly
  4. The Technology disruption will grow along as Exponential S-Curve.
  5. High vehicle utilization would lead to lesser demand of new vehicles in the markets

Additionally, his key use case was the Tesloop where in the  Tesla lifetime warranty is put to test. Tesloop is a CA local startup that provides commute to people in a Tesla across CA. Tesla Lifetime Warranty ensures that the only upkeep cost that this company has to bear is the wear and tear from tires.

So how did Tesla come up with the infinite mile warranty?

Model S from Tesla had only 20 moving parts while a traditional Internal Combustion Engine (also known as ICE and is used by most cars in the Petrol and Diesel world today) have more than 10,000 moving parts. More the number of moving parts, more is the Electric Vehiclewear and tear and higher is the upkeep cost. The high price we pay for service of vehicles every 6-9 months is due to this high number of moving parts in the current ICE engines. A mere simplified design along with a clean energy source has led to a whole new set of dimensions of the auto industry. Lot more can be found here.

Impact of just this case study of Tesloop and Infinite Mile warranty:

  1. Low maintenance cost for the vehicles, Consequently, lower Total Cost of Ownership.
  2. Lesser to no consumption of oil so lower oil prices. May oil based economies will be impacted. So a certain shift in axis in the world economic powers.
  3. More vehicles in TaaS would mean lesser number of cars on the road. So, lesser auto insurance cost as there would be lesser accidents with lower density of vehicles. The insurance matrix would change.
  4. More cash in hand with people so improved consumer spending
  5. And what is not reported by Tony Seba – the 90 million jobs questions

The Indian companies do not appear to be geared up for this yet. If you go through the annual reports for Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors, there is hardly any mention of the electric vehicles. Perhaps, it is not in a stage yet that it can be reported.

But the bigger problem appears from the famous campaign of ‘Make in India‘ initiated by the current regime of PM Narendra Modi in India.

The ‘Make in India‘ campaign for Automotive Sector has the following aspirations:

  • Automotive Industry to be “prime mover” of the Manufacturing Sector and “Make Make_In_Indiain India” initiative
  • Exports of vehicles to increase by 5 times and of components of 7.5 times
  • Add 65 million jobs on top of current 25 million commitment for the sector

When combined with Tony Seba’s research, this initiative would need a major overhaul very soon. Following are some of the impacts that are visible:

  1. Large automotive manufacturers need to start planning for appropriate interventions for electric vehicles – new technology, new assembly lines and new skills for workers
  2. Large automotive manufacturers would need to settle with lesser domestic demand and lesser exports
  3. Auto components sector will undergo a significant consolidation and shrink as ICE’s will be replaced with electric engines. Lesser complexity as lesser number of parts are required so lesser number of OEMs.
  4. Auto insurance will undergo significant overhaul. Lesser premium, pressure on margins and shrunk workforce are immediate impacts.
  5. Roadside garages will no longer be there.
  6. And of course, the 90 million additional jobs that are being planned to be added would require new skills and re-training.

Unfamiliar and unknown impact to Skill India campaign:

The astounding impact of this is surely going to benefit the Skill India sector where the current training organisations will have a ready pool of candidates to train. The question truly remains whether Skill India or other training organisations have this kind of capacity to support such a quick switch in skills. As per National Skill Development Council reports, the current capacity of their training partners for Automotive Skill Development Council is 6.5 million.

Due to several reasons these are operating at the rate of 67% capacity. So, the current number of trained and skilled workers is 4.3 million. 

ASDC Capacity

A simple math shows that it would require 20 years to skill the current commitments. A disruptive change in technology as discussed above would lead to additional number of years. Clearly, much more needs to be done. Its a huge opportunity for budding entrepreneurs.

Another big question is whether the youth is ready to brace this kind of change? No one would know answer to this till the actually impact is visible.

It is still surprising that this shrinking world has global impact of one observation and research concluded somewhere at a time when people were sleeping.

Whether the ‘Make in India’ campaign can lead to this transformation is still an open question? But these 90 million jobs are going to be impacted in some way or the other is beyond doubt! And that the current capacity is not ready to embrace this change, opens a new area for budding entrepreneurs. Surely, interesting times ahead.