Fears of #AI Part 2 – Accidental Intelligence

Just as we were recovering from the spat between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, as discussed in last week’s post on Fears of AI, new events in the world are leading to more fears of perils due to Artificial Intelligence.

Fear of AI

Facebook stopped an experiment where it had created two AI Bots to negotiate with each other. The initial idea was for the bots to negotiate with each other, based on bartering. Thus ultimately hitting the common ground for both and close the deal. Instead, this happened –

(Original Transcript of negotiation between the bots)

Bob: i can i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

Bob: you i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

 

Alice: balls have a ball to me to me to me to me to me to me to me

Bob: i i can i i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have a ball to me to me to me to me to me to me to me

Bob: i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

Bob: you i i i i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have 0 to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

Bob: you i i i everything else . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to

What is odd in the discussion above is the language that is being used by the two bots to negotiate. Clearly, it’s not English but something scripted in English. What is clear is that the bots have developed a language only they can understand. They are interacting and responding the same way. This is the classic GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out) situation. However, Facebook quickly shut the experiment. The whole world has gone berserk with this announcement. Facebook has embraced the greatest fears of AI. Some go to the extent to say this is what has happened in public domain. What has happened in private, no one knows?

There is more noise now that scientists may not know all the solutions, and to be more specific all the problems. There are doomsday scenarios being written by multiple people, but here is a good list that tells all –

  1. THERE ARE NO ETHICS, INDUSTRY STANDARDS OR TESTING RULES
  2. RELATIONS BETWEEN MAN AND MACHINE IS CHANGING
  3. GENETIC DIVERSITY WILL BE WIPED OUT
  4. AI IS GOAL-ORIENTED REGARDLESS TO A FAULT
  5. WE WILL HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THE MACHINES
  6. VALUE OF LABOR AND SKILLS WILL FALL
  7. CRIMINAL POTENTIAL FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS BIGGER THAN YOU THINK
  8. REALITY IS DIFFERENT THAN HOW THE MEDIA REPRESENTS AI

  9. WE ARE HANDING OVER THE KEYS

  10. IT WILL LEAD HUMAN RACE CLOSE TO THE DEAD END

  11. AI CREATORS WILL NEVER KNOW ALL THE SOLUTIONS

  12. LAWS AND FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS WILL LOSE THEIR IMPACT

  13. OUR EDUCATION SYSTEM NEEDS TO BETTER PREPARE THE NEXT GENERATION

  14. THERE’S NO CURE FOR IGNORANCE

  15. AI IS NOT A PROBLEM, BUT HUMAN HUBRIS IS

More details here – The Clever.

Here is the video of the week –

Would Bahubali spill Blood on D-Street? This Probabilistic Model says so…

Indian Movie Industry(combination of Bollywood, Tollywood, Mollywood and few other woods) is among the most vibrant content creator industries serving to a very smart and astute customer. The Indian movie fans take the movie business very seriously. Its a very competitive field both for the artists and actors as well as the production houses, the directors and cinema halls. With a very short shelf life, movies are a very interesting and extremely fast paced product. Of course this makes movies a market of choice for lot of studies and when mega events happen, we watch them closely.

One such event is happening on April 28th with release of the concluding part of the 2015 mega period blockbuster movie Bahubali.

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Ever since its release in 2015, the word Baahubali (meaning the liberated soul with strong arms) is used in everyday conversation to emphasize greatness. It is a classic David vs. Goliath story. There are even a number of jokes and whatsapp forwards going around over why Katappa, one of the loyal slaves of the protagonist Bahubali kill his master as was left shown – but reason untold – in the first version. The conclusion part will answer this question.  When such events happen, the whole society is on a lookout.

Now stock markets are no exception to such events. After all, behind all the algorithms and terminals, it is the human being operating them. People feel good when there are such mega events happening, just as sorrow and fear grips the markets when any bad news arrives. There is euphoria with what we call as the ‘Adrenaline Rush’.

Continue reading “Would Bahubali spill Blood on D-Street? This Probabilistic Model says so…”

Pollution Chokes the Stock Market?

Disclaimer: This is a long research post. Thanks for your patience.

India is a developing country. It is among the fastest growing economies in the world under the able leadership of PM Narendra Modi. Like every growing economy, India has its own set of problems and pollution is one significant one. Look below to see India’s contribution to the top 10 most polluted cities in the world (source:Wikipedia)

Most Polluted Cities

Consequently, we Indians (at least in the most contributing metropolitan cities like Delhi, Mumbai etc.) are very much concerned about our well being and also how we can improve the environment.

So when HBR reported that there is a research team in the US that has found “Air pollution brings down the Stock Markets”, I could not resist to conduct a research exercise for  the same from the India (and world’s) beloved SENSEX with the air quality in Mumbai. It was an interesting exercise spanning over 3 days with some learning and some interesting results.

Before we get into details, little bit on the terms used and the methodology.

Important Terms:

Definition of Air Pollution: Air pollution in simple terms is the deteriorated condition of air in the location due to high density of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide family and particulate matter. More on Air Pollution is here.

Identity of Sensex: Sensex is the index of market weighted average of 30 sound performing and specially identified companies from the listed public companies of India. It has per second, per nanosecond variation like any other index.

Continue reading “Pollution Chokes the Stock Market?”